The Territory’s next decade is already funded. Whether we can staff it is the more interesting question, and the answer sits more within our control than most employers assume.

The next decade is already funded

The Territory’s project pipeline looks great right now. Barossa shipped its first LNG cargo in January and has moved into production, securing around 300 permanent NT positions for the next twenty years. Beetaloo is close to first gas. The Darwin Ship Lift is under construction. And an estimated $8.2 billion of defence infrastructure is planned for the Territory over the coming decade, of which $6.9 billion is already approved and underway.

Put Middle Arm and SunCable behind those and the fair assessment is that the Territory has more committed work ahead of it than at almost any point in recent memory. Not many jurisdictions our size can say that.

So the question worth asking is not whether the work is coming. It is whether we will have the people to do it, and whether those people will be Territorians.

Participation is the Territory’s quiet advantage

In June 2026 the Territory recorded a trend workforce participation rate of 73.4 per cent. That is the highest of any state or territory in Australia, and roughly six and a half percentage points above the national figure. Underemployment was 3.8 per cent in April, against 5.9 per cent nationally.

73.4% NT workforce participation, the highest in Australia

3.8% NT underemployment, against 5.9% nationally

$8.2b Defence infrastructure planned for the NT this decade

Read those together and you have a workforce that turns up and wants the hours. Territorians participate in work at a rate no other jurisdiction matches. That is a real competitive advantage, and it is the main reason we take a more optimistic view of the Territory’s workforce than the commentary usually allows.

We lose people in the gaps, not the downturns

The complication sits elsewhere. Over the past year the number of unemployed Territorians rose 17.4 per cent even as employment grew, and 61 per cent of NT employers told Jobs and Skills Australia they were finding it hard to recruit. That is the highest rate in the country.

High participation and difficult recruitment do not usually sit together, and when they do it points to something specific. The migration data shows what. In the year to December 2025, 14,258 people moved to the Territory from interstate and 15,486 left. That is close to 30,000 moves in a place of 267,478 people.

Construction shows the pattern most clearly. The sector employed around 11,800 Territorians in 2024-25 and grew 5.9 per cent that year, yet across the decade to February 2025 its employment fell by a quarter.

Those losses do not happen when work dries up. They happen in the gap between one project demobilising and the next one starting. Skilled people whose tickets travel take the roster in WA, and by the time the next mobilisation comes round, the employer is buying back capability it already had.

A matching problem is a solvable problem

This is where we would push back on the gloomier reading of the Territory’s labour market.

If the NT had a genuine labour shortage, the outlook would be hard, because you cannot conjure people who are not there. That is not what these numbers describe. Participation is the highest in the country. Underemployment is the lowest. People are arriving, and the labour force grew 3.0 per cent last year, faster than employment did.

What the Territory has is a matching and retention problem. Those are operational problems, and operational problems respond to planning. It is a considerably better position than the headline unemployment figure suggests.

Workforce planning is infrastructure planning

Territory employers should treat workforce the way they treat plant and equipment. It is an asset with a maintenance schedule, not a purchase you make once a project is awarded.

In practice that means four things.

• Plan against the pipeline.Work out what capability you need in six and twelve months and match it to project starts you can confirm. In a market where 61 per cent of employers report recruitment difficulty, raising a requisition the day someone resigns puts you at the back of a long queue. Talk to recruiters whilst you are still in the planning phases, so they can also plan to provide your team ahead of time.
• Get compliance moving before you need it.Police checks, Working With Children Checks, occupational medicals and licensing are the most common reason a good candidate cannot start on Monday. The distance between qualified and job-ready is usually paperwork.
• Redeploy rather than release.Where a project is winding down, a labour hire arrangement can move workers across to another host employer and keep them employed, in the Territory, and available for the next mobilisation. Holding capability costs less than repurchasing it.
• Use the levers built for this place.The NT Designated Area Migration Agreement covers 325 occupations with salary, English and age concessions the standard visa pathways do not offer. The Skilled Occupation Priority List, refreshed last October, sets the local priorities. Both are underused.

The outcome worth aiming at

The Territory is going to build a great deal over the next ten years. The businesses that do well out of it will not be the ones with the widest job ads or the highest rates, they will be the ones who kept their people between contracts and can start on time.

Emma Nesbitt
Managing Director
ACTIO Group
Level 3, 43 Cavenagh Street, Darwin City NT 0800
(08) 8941 2040  |  recruit@actiogroup.au